When Will the Next Hurricane Strike California?

The state hasn’t been hit by such a storm since 1858 — but the chances rise in El Niño years like this one

Hurricane Linda, a Category 5 monster in the Pacific Ocean in 1997, briefly looked like it might head toward Southern California. Image: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

Nobody could have expected the tempest that barreled in from the ocean on that Saturday morning, ripping boats from their moorings and destroying homes. There were no round-the-clock warnings on TV, no emergency messages blaring from the radio, and no five-day cones of uncertainty to scrutinize on the internet.

But not long after daybreak, the signs were building: Clouds grew ominous, the wind picked up, the barometer plunged. It was October 2, 1858. According to a local newspaper article from the time, things got intense around 11 a.m.:

“A terrific gale sprung up from the S.S.E. and continued with perfect fury until about 5 p.m., when it somewhat abated, and rain commenced to fall. It blew with such violence, and the air was filled with such dense clouds of dust, that it was impossible to see across the Plaza, and it was with the greatest difficulty that pedestrians could walk the streets. The damage to property was considerable; houses were unroofed and blown down, trees uprooted, and fences destroyed.”

The account, from the San Diego Herald, continued: “It is said to have been the severest gale ever witnessed in San Diego.”

Another report, in the Daily Alta California, told of a yacht tossed ashore and broken to bits, and a wind that “came along in a perfect hurricane, tearing down houses and everything that was in its way. Roofs of houses, trees, fences, [etc., etc.,], filled the air in all directions.”

It wasn’t until 85 years later that Col. Joe Duckworth of the Army Air Corps bet a highball that he could fly through the center of a hurricane. On July 27, 1943, in his AT-6 Trainer and without official permission, Duckworth plowed into a storm that was approaching Texas. He survived, and the feat led to the creation of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. Today we call them the Hurricane Hunters.

Eighteen years later, President John F. Kennedy proposed putting a man on the moon. He also called for $53 million to create a system of weather satellites to watch for storms around the globe. The first…